Since then, cryptocurrency has surged in popularity as an asset class – and Bitcoin is now just one of many digital currencies out there. Investment has poured into the sector because many see the blockchain as an important foundational technology for the future, and it’s also gained traction for speculative reasons. However, strictly from a payments perspective, certain issues have cropped up since the original Bitcoin vision was outlined, and they’ve ultimately prevented crypto from receiving mainstream adoption as a currency for day-to-day transactions. What are these obstacles, and how will they be overcome?
The Retail Opportunity
Today’s infographic comes to us from NetCents, and it highlights the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency by retailers and a willingness for consumers to consider using it. Importantly, the graphic also highlights the major hindrances preventing crypto from reaching mass payment adoption, as well as how the future may look significantly different than today. In 2017, the amount of brick-and-mortar retailers accepting crypto grew by 30.3% to 11,291 retailers globally. At the same time, users have also warmed up to the idea: a recent survey found that 40% of people familiar with the digital currency would be open to using it in everyday transactions. So why aren’t most people able to buy a coffee at their neighborhood cafe with Bitcoin?
Payment Challenges
There are three main obstacles to using cryptocurrency for everyday transactions. (Note: this list mainly focuses on Bitcoin examples)
- Price volatility In 2017 alone, the Bitcoin price fluctuated between $1,000 and $20,000. Big swings in price make it unattractive for day-to-day transactions.
- Slow transaction times The average confirmation for Bitcoin takes about 20 minutes per transaction right now – but during past stretches of activity (such as in Jan 2018), it got as high as 41 hours.
- High transaction fees The average transaction costs around $1 right now, but just months ago, the average Bitcoin transaction costed $40. These factors are not necessarily problematic at all times – but one can see why these challenges may make crypto less appealing for everyday retail transactions, such as one at the grocery store or the local coffee shop.
Crypto to the Masses?
Despite these concerns, there is much optimism that crypto can be a boon to retailers – even brick-and-mortar ones. The blockchain is still new, and people around the world are working to solve these payments issues night and day. Crypto e-payments companies are constantly introducing new technologies and features that could potentially decrease transaction costs and provide instant settlements for retailers, while also eliminating the issue of fraudulent chargebacks. Making ground on these issues would make crypto significantly more appealing to the masses as a form of payment. What else needs to be done to push crypto into the mainstream? on But fast forward to the end of last week, and SVB was shuttered by regulators after a panic-induced bank run. So, how exactly did this happen? We dig in below.
Road to a Bank Run
SVB and its customers generally thrived during the low interest rate era, but as rates rose, SVB found itself more exposed to risk than a typical bank. Even so, at the end of 2022, the bank’s balance sheet showed no cause for alarm.
As well, the bank was viewed positively in a number of places. Most Wall Street analyst ratings were overwhelmingly positive on the bank’s stock, and Forbes had just added the bank to its Financial All-Stars list. Outward signs of trouble emerged on Wednesday, March 8th, when SVB surprised investors with news that the bank needed to raise more than $2 billion to shore up its balance sheet. The reaction from prominent venture capitalists was not positive, with Coatue Management, Union Square Ventures, and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund moving to limit exposure to the 40-year-old bank. The influence of these firms is believed to have added fuel to the fire, and a bank run ensued. Also influencing decision making was the fact that SVB had the highest percentage of uninsured domestic deposits of all big banks. These totaled nearly $152 billion, or about 97% of all deposits. By the end of the day, customers had tried to withdraw $42 billion in deposits.
What Triggered the SVB Collapse?
While the collapse of SVB took place over the course of 44 hours, its roots trace back to the early pandemic years. In 2021, U.S. venture capital-backed companies raised a record $330 billion—double the amount seen in 2020. At the time, interest rates were at rock-bottom levels to help buoy the economy. Matt Levine sums up the situation well: “When interest rates are low everywhere, a dollar in 20 years is about as good as a dollar today, so a startup whose business model is “we will lose money for a decade building artificial intelligence, and then rake in lots of money in the far future” sounds pretty good. When interest rates are higher, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, so investors want cash flows. When interest rates were low for a long time, and suddenly become high, all the money that was rushing to your customers is suddenly cut off.” Source: Pitchbook Why is this important? During this time, SVB received billions of dollars from these venture-backed clients. In one year alone, their deposits increased 100%. They took these funds and invested them in longer-term bonds. As a result, this created a dangerous trap as the company expected rates would remain low. During this time, SVB invested in bonds at the top of the market. As interest rates rose higher and bond prices declined, SVB started taking major losses on their long-term bond holdings.
Losses Fueling a Liquidity Crunch
When SVB reported its fourth quarter results in early 2023, Moody’s Investor Service, a credit rating agency took notice. In early March, it said that SVB was at high risk for a downgrade due to its significant unrealized losses. In response, SVB looked to sell $2 billion of its investments at a loss to help boost liquidity for its struggling balance sheet. Soon, more hedge funds and venture investors realized SVB could be on thin ice. Depositors withdrew funds in droves, spurring a liquidity squeeze and prompting California regulators and the FDIC to step in and shut down the bank.
What Happens Now?
While much of SVB’s activity was focused on the tech sector, the bank’s shocking collapse has rattled a financial sector that is already on edge.
The four biggest U.S. banks lost a combined $52 billion the day before the SVB collapse. On Friday, other banking stocks saw double-digit drops, including Signature Bank (-23%), First Republic (-15%), and Silvergate Capital (-11%).
Source: Morningstar Direct. *Represents March 9 data, trading halted on March 10.
When the dust settles, it’s hard to predict the ripple effects that will emerge from this dramatic event. For investors, the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen announced confidence in the banking system remaining resilient, noting that regulators have the proper tools in response to the issue.
But others have seen trouble brewing as far back as 2020 (or earlier) when commercial banking assets were skyrocketing and banks were buying bonds when rates were low.
