Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem. Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period. To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions. Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments. Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices. On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in. For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course. on These two major listing hubs dwarf all other exchanges around the world. In fact, the NYSE on its own is larger than the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, and Euronext exchanges put together. As of January 2023, the value of stocks listed on U.S. exchanges made up 42% of the global total. How does this total stack up, historically?
The U.S. Share Over Time
For much of the 1970s, the U.S. made up more than half of global stock market value. Over the course of the 1980s, the U.S. share of the global total began to dip, driven in part by the asset price bubble in Japan.
More recently, the U.S. slice of the equities pie bottomed out temporarily around the time of the Financial Crisis, but has been steadily rising ever since.
Will U.S. Exchanges Ever Be Surpassed?
U.S. stock exchanges have several advantages that make them attractive to investors, including strong regulatory oversight, a stable political and economic environment, and a diverse pool of well-known companies to invest in. The U.S. stock exchanges also have a long history of innovation and technological advancement, which has helped to maintain their position as leading global exchanges. In 2018, PwC surveyed hundreds of capital market participants on the future of stock exchanges. Respondents felt that, by 2030, many of today’s top exchanges would remain popular choices for companies looking to go public.
Despite obvious advantages, U.S. exchanges do face plenty of competition, especially in emerging markets like China and India. The Shanghai Stock Exchange, for example, has seen significant growth in recent years and is now the world’s third-largest exchange by market capitalization. Even as other markets continue to grow, U.S. exchanges are likely to remain a preferred destination for investors around the world for years to come.
title: “Visualizing 90 Years Of Stock And Bond Portfolio Performance” ShowToc: true date: “2023-03-06” author: “Matthew Smith”
Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem. Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period. To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions. Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments. Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices. On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in. For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course. on These two major listing hubs dwarf all other exchanges around the world. In fact, the NYSE on its own is larger than the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, and Euronext exchanges put together. As of January 2023, the value of stocks listed on U.S. exchanges made up 42% of the global total. How does this total stack up, historically?
The U.S. Share Over Time
For much of the 1970s, the U.S. made up more than half of global stock market value. Over the course of the 1980s, the U.S. share of the global total began to dip, driven in part by the asset price bubble in Japan.
More recently, the U.S. slice of the equities pie bottomed out temporarily around the time of the Financial Crisis, but has been steadily rising ever since.
Will U.S. Exchanges Ever Be Surpassed?
U.S. stock exchanges have several advantages that make them attractive to investors, including strong regulatory oversight, a stable political and economic environment, and a diverse pool of well-known companies to invest in. The U.S. stock exchanges also have a long history of innovation and technological advancement, which has helped to maintain their position as leading global exchanges. In 2018, PwC surveyed hundreds of capital market participants on the future of stock exchanges. Respondents felt that, by 2030, many of today’s top exchanges would remain popular choices for companies looking to go public.
Despite obvious advantages, U.S. exchanges do face plenty of competition, especially in emerging markets like China and India. The Shanghai Stock Exchange, for example, has seen significant growth in recent years and is now the world’s third-largest exchange by market capitalization. Even as other markets continue to grow, U.S. exchanges are likely to remain a preferred destination for investors around the world for years to come.
